If you can't beat them ...

Say what you like about Hamid Karzai, but you can’t call him an American puppet. On Saturday, we’re told, he said to members of the Afghan parliament: “If you and the international community pressure me more, I swear that I am going to join the Taliban.” (The quote appears in the ninth paragraph of one of those Gray Lady “analyses” that are really editorials in disguise. This one beats the old drum that if only we get rid of the incumbent, everything will be fine.... Right! We had great success with that in South Vietnam!)

No doubt Mr. Karzai is playing the Cold War game of increasing American aid by threatening to cozy up to the enemy. (Alternately, he may have noticed the weird tendency of this administration to apologize to its enemies while pulling the rug from under its friends.) But his threat ought to be taken seriously: at a certain point, joining the Taliban is exactly what the West must consider doing: “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!”

As it happens, my favorite military theorist made just that argument in his Patterns of Conflict briefing of 1986. The object of a counter-insurgency campaign, he begins, is to “Undermine guerrilla cause and destroy their cohesion by demonstrating integrity and competence of government to represent and serve needs of people—rather than exploit and impoverish them for the benefit of a greedy elite.” That is: we must prove that we represent the good guys. To which he adds a sly footnote: “If you cannot realize such a political program, you might consider changing sides!”

Blue skies! – Dan Ford