Oh dear

Poor Japan! As if an earthquake and a tidal wave (whatever happened to that wonderful term?) weren't enough, the Japanese had a power plant explode. I wonder how long it will take before the Good People start using this triple tragedy as proof that America must stop playing with the notion of restarting its atomic power industry? Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

On bombing Iran

I've always assumed that when Iran's nuclear program got so far along that bombs were an inevitable product, the Israelis would blast the facilities out of existence, as it has done to other nations in the past. Not so fast, says Kenneth Pollack in The National Interest:

Most American (and Israeli) nuclear experts now think that Tehran is so far along that it could rebuild the entire program and be back to where it is at present in just a year or two. And many already fear that Iran has secret facilities, or is hiding key machinery and material for its nuclear program—then the program wouldn’t be set back much at all by a military campaign.

It is also worth keeping in mind that Iran probably will retaliate against the United States.... The Islamic Republic has a formidable capacity to employ terrorism and a lot of allies, like Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who could also cause a great deal of damage on Tehran’s behalf. If there is anyone out there who might be able to replicate a terrorist attack as terrible as 9/11, it is Iran.

Sanctions, he thinks, have a better chance of success--but tougher sanctions, allied with covert action and a greater emphasis on human rights. South Africa is the model here: the whole world was ready to dump on South Africa, especially the Good People, not for its nukes but for the odiousness of its regime. Worth a read. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Sloppy work at the Natanz plant

Here's that Iranian nuclear plant that may or may not have been attacked by a computer virus. The NYT has a more thoughtful piece on the cyber assault in today's paper, with the most interesting bit being the conclusion that the attack was terribly sloppy. When have Israeli spooks every been sloppy? As an example of how good the IDF and Mossad are, the same story mentions that when Israeli jets destroyed a Syrian nuclear reactor three years ago, the Syrian anti-aircraft batteries had been switched off, so they couldn't intercept.

The photo is credited to Majid Saeedi. Who do you suppose he works for? Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Has the Israeli attack begun?

Almost in passing yesterday, the New York Times reported rumors that Iran's nuclear program is under attack by computer warriors--spooks that actually have access to the Iranian computers, which aren't connected to the internet. That requires three things: sophistication in cyberwarfare, a great desire to stop the Persian Bomb, and agents on the ground in Iran. The Gray Lady lists three leading suspects: the U.S., Israel, and Britain. Post-Blair, I think we can rule out the UK. The U.S. of course is a possibility--the Obama administration seems to favor standoff warfare to the belt-buckle sort, as it has displayed with its generous use of drone attacks in Pakistan. But after years--generations!--of emasculating the CIA, where would we get the agents capable of slipping a thumb drive into the computer that runs the Persian version of Los Alamos?

No, I'll lay my bet on Israel.  Blue skies! -- Dan Ford