How to place fourth in a two-party election

In today’s Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan writes about the ‘catastrophic victory’ that Mr Obama is determined to achieve by remodeling the healthcare system, when the public doesn't want him to. She then goes on to project a similar ‘catastrophic victory’ for the Republicans, who she assumes will take control of the House of Representatives in November. I’m not so sure! It’s not just that Mr Obama has blown away his popularity; it’s not only that the voters are fed up with Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. It’s that Washington is in the national doghouse.

Among the Rasmussen Polls’s recent findings: Republicans lead Democrats by nine points in a generic Congressional matchup. That sounds like great news for Republicans, and a vindication of Ms Noonan, except for the fact that one doesn’t get to run against a generic opponent; it’s always a real candidate, and so must you be.

But the hilarious finding is what happens when Rasmussen restricts his probing to independents—those who claim to be a member of neither party yet are likely to vote. When asked whom they’d support among a Democrat, a Republican and a tea party candidate, independents chose the tea party candidate by 33 percent. Undecided came in second with 30 percent. The Democrats came in third with 25 percent and the Republicans fourth with 12 percent. Other recent findings that ought to cause seismic changes in Washington but probably won’t:

* 52 percent of Americans oppose the health care bill
* 53 percent don’t want the bill to cover abortions
* 55 percent say it’s better to let California go bankrupt than bail it out
* 58 percent think Congress is doing a lousy job, and the same number favor waterboarding the underpants bomber
* 67 percent think the country is on the wrong track
* And 78 percent think the health care plan will cost more than they’ve been told.

Blue skies! – Dan Ford